All economists in the poll expect no change to the benchmark overnight policy rate. They said stable inflation, steady credit growth, and continued economic activity support this decision.
The Central Bank has kept interest rates unchanged since May last year. This policy has continued as the country recovers from the 2022 financial crisis caused by a shortage of foreign currency.
IMF Review Takes Place This Week
The interest rate decision comes while a team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reviews the sixth tranche of Sri Lanka’s USD 2.9 billion support programme.
The IMF team will complete its fact-finding mission on Wednesday.
Earlier, the IMF reduced Sri Lanka’s growth forecast for 2026 from 3.1% to 2.9%. It also warned that inflation could rise to 5.4%. This is slightly higher than the Central Bank’s forecast of 5%.
At the end of 2025, inflation stood at 2.1%.
In addition, the IMF approved USD 206 million in emergency funding to support immediate recovery work.
Cyclone Ditwah Still Affects Recovery
Sri Lanka’s recovery slowed after Cyclone Ditwah hit the country in late November.
The cyclone killed 649 people and affected nearly 10% of the population.
According to the World Bank, damage to houses, roads, and key infrastructure reached about USD 4.1 billion.
Despite these challenges, the Central Bank expects economic growth of 4% to 5% this year. Higher government spending for rebuilding will support this growth.
Meanwhile, Parliament approved an extra Rs. 500 billion last month to help cyclone-affected families and support reconstruction work.
Economists say the Central Bank will likely keep interest rates unchanged for now. However, it will closely watch inflation and economic recovery in the coming months.
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Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL)
Last modified: January 26, 2026
