Growing electricity demand from artificial intelligence and data centres, together with higher fuel use in Asia and Europe’s gas needs, could shift the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market from an expected surplus to a shortage by 2030, the head of Qatar Energy has said.
Speaking at the LNG2026 conference in Doha, Saad al-Kaabi said earlier projections had pointed to an oversupply between 2025 and 2030, but demand forecasts have since risen.
“We always thought the market would have some kind of oversupply between 2025 and 2030, and beyond that a shortage,” he said. Demand expectations have increased mainly due to AI and data centre requirements. If this continues, there will be a shortage instead of an oversupply by 2030.”
Large LNG projects due to come online between 2026 and 2029, including the Golden Pass LNG project in the United States and Qatar’s North Field expansion, had raised concerns of excess supply that could weigh on prices.
Kaabi also pointed to Europe’s growing reliance on LNG after ending imports of Russian pipeline gas following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Energy executives at the event described a strong long-term outlook for LNG demand, although views differed on how new supply could affect prices later in the decade.
The chief executive of Shell, Wael Sawan, said global energy demand is increasing at a pace equivalent to adding the consumption of Switzerland every month through to 2050. He forecast LNG demand rising to between 650 and 700 million metric tonnes by 2040, from about 415 million tonnes today.
ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance said global LNG demand could double over the next 20 years, reaching around 600 million tonnes by 2030 and 800 million tonnes by 2050.
Executives identified Asia as the main driver of future demand growth, led by China and India and supported by population growth across the region. Kaabi said India’s plan to raise gas to 15% of its energy mix by 2030, from about 6–7% now, would boost LNG imports. He added that demand from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, the Philippines and Vietnam is also expected to increase.
For more developed Asian economies such as Japan and South Korea, Kaabi said data centres are emerging as a key factor pushing up gas requirements.
Asia’s LNG demand eased in 2025 due to high prices and competition from alternative fuels, but analysts expect it to recover this year as lower prices encourage spot purchases, fuel switching and stockpiling.
Some executives said LNG prices could soften in the next few years as new supply enters the market, while others warned that project delays could tighten conditions.
Darren Woods, CEO of Exxon Mobil, said long-term investment decisions are based on expectations of future demand. “This is a long-horizon industry. You make investments for the long term, grounded in where we see demand going,” he said.
Last modified: February 3, 2026
