Global commodity prices are set to rise 23% in 2026 as wars, shipping problems and weather risks push up the cost of energy, food and raw materials. The World Bank said several shocks are hitting commodity markets at the same time. The pressure could affect household spending, business costs and investment around the world.
Global energy prices are expected to rise 32% this year. They could reach their highest level since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
Oil supply could fall 5.2% this year. That would be the biggest drop in four decades, outside the 2020 global recession.
The World Bank expects Brent crude to average $92 a barrel.
Higher Prices Can Change How People Spend
The impact of higher commodity prices can spread well beyond financial markets. When food and energy costs rise, households have less money for other needs. Businesses also face higher costs for transport, production and raw materials.
The World Bank expects food commodity prices to rise by more than 10% in 2026. Fighting between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted grain shipments through the Black Sea.
Food prices could rise by another 7% or more in 2027. That would put the total increase close to 18% over two years.
The pressure could grow if several risks hit at the same time.
The World Bank warned that a record El Niño, more Black Sea disruptions, a wider Middle East conflict and further damage to Russian oil facilities could push food prices 12% above current forecasts.
Such a rise could increase food shortages and push more people into poverty.
Gold Shows How Uncertainty Changes Behaviour
Higher prices do not affect everyone in the same way. When wars and economic risks increase, investors often look for assets they see as safer. Gold and other precious metals can benefit from this demand.
The World Bank expects precious metal prices to rise 40% in 2026. It linked the increase to demand for safe-haven assets during periods of political and economic uncertainty.
Metal prices are also expected to rise 25%. Aluminium, copper and tin could reach new highs.
The World Bank linked this rise to supply problems and strong demand from renewable energy, electric vehicles and data centres.
Fertilizer prices are expected to rise 14% this year. Higher urea prices are driving much of the increase.
The World Bank expects overall commodity prices to fall 7% in 2027. But new supply shocks could keep food and energy prices high.
That could leave households with less money to spend, businesses with higher costs and policymakers under pressure to control inflation while supporting economic growth.
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Numbers & Indexes World Bank (WB)
Last modified: October 29, 2026
